Thought & Knowledge

Chapter 1 - Thinking: An Introduction

Exercise 1.1: Writing as An Aid for Thinking

Because critical thinking is a skill that must be practiced if it is to learn in a way that will promote transfer, there are several exercises presented for each chapter.  All of the exercises are designed to involve the reader deeply and actively in concrete, useful experiences in critical thinking.  One way to improve thinking skills is with writing.  When people write, they are required to organize thoughts, make decisions about what is relevant and what is not, select the words that convey their thoughts, and arrive at a conclusion.  Numerous psychologists have noted the close link between thinking and writing (e.g., McGovern & Hogshead, 1990; Wade, 1995).  Writing is an important skill that is needed in every profession, and the only way to "get good at it" is to practice often.

Exercise 1.2: Topic Analysis

Although the thinking skills are grouped and presented in many chapters, in fact there is a great deal of overlap among them.  Most complex issues will require the use of many of the skills that are covered in the text.  Here is a list of controversial, contemporary topics.  Select one of them to work on throughout the term.  Although the sort of information that is available for each topic will differ, almost all of them will require the use of evidence, understanding cause, solving problems, using language to persuade, and the other skills that are presented in later chapters.           

As you work through the text, use the skills gained in each chapter to help formulate your conclusions about the topic you select.  Be sure that the topic you select is one that you honestly don't have a strong opinion about at this time.  This is important because research has shown that you will probably attend to information that confirms your beliefs and down-play the importance of information that is counter to your beliefs. 

1. Violence on television: Does it have negative or positive effects?  Does it desensitize children to violence?  Does it serve as a socially acceptable way to relieve anger and hostility?  Should the amount and type of violence that can be shown on television or other places be regulated in some way?  Why?
2. Needles to addicts: One major concern with the spread of AIDS is the use of dirty needles by intravenous drug users.  Should addicts be given clean needles to prevent the spread of AIDS?  Will there be more addicts if the government supplies needles?  Would the act of providing clean needles to addicts send the message that illegal drug use is OK?  What is the evidence in support of your position?
3. Capital punishment: Does capital punishment deter crime?  Is it cruel and unusual?  What is cruel and unusual punishment?  Does the definition of what is cruel and unusual depend on the time and culture, or is there a universal definition that is always true?
4. Legalization of Drugs: One suggested solution to the drug problem is to make drug use legal, much like the way we have legalized alcohol consumption.  Some think that it would eliminate virtually all drug-related crime and help addicts get the help they need.  Others believe that it will encourage drug use and increase the number of addicts.  Be sure to support your conclusion.
5. Euthanasia: Should euthanasia, the right to terminate one's own life, be decriminalized in this country?  Would this action lead to many abuses and the death of many people who might have had happy lives?  Is it ever justified?  Who should decide?
6. Parental rights: Do parents have the right to know if their teenage-minor children (ages 13 to 17) purchase contraceptives, elect to have an abortion, or have a sexually-transmitted disease?  Parents have financial, legal, and moral responsibilities toward their children.  What are the rights of parents when the information concerns their children's behavior and health?
7. Day care: Should the US adopt a national policy on day care?  Would this pose a serious risk to the traditional family and encourage parents to leave their young children with strangers for much of the day?  Is quality day care a right like the right to a public education or is it a costly luxury that will contribute to the breakup of families?
8. Pornography: Should pornography (involving either children or adults) be regulated in any way?  Is this a violation of free speech?  Is pornography harmful?  How do you know?  How can we define pornography?
9. Pregnant Women and Drugs: Should pregnant women who drink alcohol excessively or take illegal drugs be subjected to prosecution for putting their children at risk?  Is this child abuse?  Would it ultimately harm the children that such a law would be designed to protect?
10. Teens and Welfare: A national columnist recently suggested that teenage mothers should not be given welfare payments so as to encourage them to work and get support from the father.  Would this help or hurt society in general, the mothers, or their children? Is it a good idea?
11. Same-sex Marriage: Several states in the U.S. have changed marriage laws, making marriage between two men and between two women legal. How are these laws fair or unfair? How do these laws affect the institution of marriage in general? What does the U.S. Constitution have to say about how laws apply to individuals? Should same-sex marriage be legal or not?
12. Violent Video Games: Multiple incidents of youth gun violence have been linked to excessive exposure to violent video games. What are some of these cases? Be sure to examine the cases of Columbine High School (Littleton, CO) and Sandy Hook Elementary School (Newtown, CT). What does research say about exposure to violent video games and aggressive behavior? Should such games be regulated, or even banned? Is this a violation of free speech, to prevent creation and marketing of such games?
13. Medical Marijuana: A number of states have made use of marijuana legal when prescribed by a physician. Examine popular arguments for and against legal use of marijuana for the treatment of pain, nausea, and other ailments. Describe the strength of opposing and favoring arguments in terms of criteria for sound arguments. What is your opinion about legal use of medical marijuana?

When working on your topic analysis, you will have to consider what information you will need to support a conclusion.  You will need to use most of the skills developed in the text as you work through your topic--how well your evidence supports your conclusion, the structure of the argument you are making, the use of empirical data, and identification of fallacious reasoning.  Be sure to state a conclusion and provide good support for it.  I hope that you will enjoy researching and thinking about the controversial topic you selected.

Exercise 1.3: Guidelines for Topic Analysis Papers

This is an outline of some of the basic steps in writing your topic analysis paper.  It is a useful guide that should be helpful with any writing assignment.

1. Consider your topic.  What are the issues and arguments on both sides?  Are there more than two sides?  Does the nature of the conclusion depend on other variables such as the age of the participants or their income or intent?  Be sure that you understand the issues.  Discuss them with other interested people.
2. Start by researching the issue in the library and by examining the thinking behind each of the claims.  Pay particular attention to the thinking skills that are presented in the text.  Examine what others have said and thought about the topic.  Consider the following:
   1. empirical data--sample size, measurement, representativeness of the sample, possible bias in the data
   2. over-generalization and the need for additional evidence
   3. definitions of terms and descriptions of issues
   4. flaws in statistical thinking
   5. failure to consider alternative options or solutions
   6. oversimplification of complex issues
   7. fallacies in thinking such as those listed in your text
   8. strength and relevance of reasons for different conclusions
   9. stated and unstated assumptions and counterarguments
   10. failure to seek disconfirming evidence
   11. misuse of language (e.g., vagueness, ambiguity, etc.)
   12. belief and value biases
   13. analogies and emotional language
   14. other skills listed in each chapter. Go through them and see which other ones might apply to your topic.
3. Determine the basic points you want to make in your paper.  What do you want readers to remember?  Think about why you chose the topic and why it is important.
4. Make an outline or graphic organizer BEFORE you write.  This should include:
   1. Introduction--state the basic points that you want to make in your paper and the steps you will follow to make these points.
   2. Description of the issues. 
   3. Analysis--arguments, reasoning, evidence, data, expert opinions, analogies, etc. This is where you demonstrate your good thinking skills. 
   4. Conclusion--Succinctly restate your basic point (i.e., what the paper showed).  Explain your ideas about the topic.
5. Go through your notes again to see if you should add or delete anything.  Do you have further information that would be helpful in understanding your topic?
6. Revise your outline or graphic organizer as needed.  Make sure that the ideas follow each other logically and support your conclusion.  Is there anything in your outline that is not relevant to your topic?  If so, delete it.
7. Write the first draft.  If at all possible, learn and use a word processor.  These are available in many places on college campuses and in private businesses where they can be rented by the hour.  Many libraries also have word processors that can be used by the public. (If you plan to use a word processor, be sure to allow extra time for computer "glitches" such as "down" time and printers that will not cooperate.)
8. Check this draft for the following:
   1. Writing style--spelling, grammar, sentence structure, tone
   2. Content--organization of the paper and logical development of ideas.  Look over the entire paper and decide if anything is omitted that would clarify the points being made, if the order of the topics should be altered, or if the conclusion is well supported.
9. Revise the paper.
10. Check margins (usually 1" to 1 1/2" all the way around),  length (approximately 5 - 8 pages, at a minimum, is needed to present some of the issues that relate to these topics--you may be asked to write a longer paper), double spacing, and completeness of title page information.  Be sure that you reference all sources that you used.  Review your college or university policy on plagiarism and honesty, if you are not familiar with it.  Plagiarism, even if unintentional, is a serious offense.
11. Check carefully for typos, ‘spellos’, and other errors.  Correct them.
12. Do not put off the task of writing so that it has to be done under time pressures. 

Exercise 1.4: Examples From the Media

As you go through the course, be on the lookout for examples of misleading statements, faulty reasoning, and misuse of data.  Look for examples of good thinking, also.  Examples can be found everywhere--on labels of products, television advertisements, the editorial pages of newspapers, political statements, and even in college classrooms.  Find one example and write a brief discussion of what is wrong or right with it.  If it is heard on radio or seen on television, paraphrase what you heard and describe what you saw.  For example, what are the claims that are found on "ginseng root," a popular product in health food stores.  Is there any evidence that it does what the labels claim that it will do?  Numerous advertisements claim that their products will give you more energy or help you lose weight.  Should you believe these claims?  You could write to the Food and Drug Administration with your conclusions.  You could also write to the manufacturer or seller of the product.  I think that you'll find this assignment to be fun. 

Exercise 1.5: Thought Process Protocols

Before you start this exercise, either set up a tape recorder or find a friend who will write down everything you say.  Presented below is a problem that you can use to practice verbalizing your thought processes.  As you work on the problem, say out loud everything you are thinking.  This is not a test of how well you think, just a way to help make you more aware of how you approach problems and think them through (Galotti, 1995).  It provides an account of your thinking processes that is ordered in time.

After You Have Thought Through the Problem Out Loud:  Now find 3 other people and ask them to think aloud as they work through the same problem.  Be sure to capture everything they say.  If they get quiet for a few seconds, prompt them to keep talking.  Compare the way each of you worked through the problem.  Was there an orderly way in which the various factors were considered?  Did you or the others keep returning to one point that was particularly salient to you or to them?   Did all of you reach the same conclusion?  If not, try to follow each "line of thought" to see how it lead to each conclusion.

Exercise 1.6

Watch three commercials on television.  Provide the product name and the basic content and features of the commercials.  What are some ideas or suggestions that are implied by the commercials? (e.g., The association of beautiful rural areas with cigarettes.) Do the suggestions made by the ads fit with the actual benefits or outcomes associated with each product?  What associations are being made with the advertised product (e.g., happy groups of friends and smoking)?

Exercise 1.7

In 1971, the average American was exposed to about 560 daily advertising messages.  Today, the average American is exposed to more than 3,000 advertising messages each day, almost six times the number 30 years ago (Koomey, 2001).  Why are people exposed to more advertising messages today?  Is it possible for people to process so much information each day?  Because processing may be limited, what are people likely to remember from advertisements?  Why are advertisements shown many times?

Exercise 1.8

Describe two specific commercials that you were exposed to recently on television or radio using your memory of the advertisements.  Ask a friend to do the same.  Do you think your recollection is accurate?  Why or why not?  Does your friend’s memory “feel” accurate or not?  How are your memories of the commercials similar to and different from your friend’s memory for the same commercial?  Why might your recollection of specific advertisements not be very accurate?

Exercise 1.9

Research in cognitive psychology (Draine, 1997) indicates that although individuals’ mood and behavior may be influenced by single words presented “subliminally” (without awareness), multiple words or phrases are not accurately interpreted when they are presenting too briefly for the person to consciously decipher.  What are the implications of these results for “subliminal” messages?  Would it be possible to get you to vote for a political candidate or buy a product via subliminal messages?

Exercise 1.10

Although much scientific research indicates that complex messages presented “subliminally” (without conscious awareness) are ineffective, many people still believe that their behavior is influenced by hidden messages in advertisements.  How might people’s beliefs in such messages ultimately affect their behavior?

Exercise 1.11

Identify an example of the stereotypical Hollywood view of the critical thinker.  What are the character’s main characteristics and behaviors?  Now identify an example of an actual person who you believe to be a critical thinker.  What are that person’s characteristics and behaviors?  Does your own example differ from the Hollywood stereotype or not?

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Chapter 2 - Thinking Starts Here: Memory as the Mediator of Cognitive Processes

Try out the memory skills you’ve learned in this chapter.

Exercise 2.1

If you are currently learning a second language, use the keyword technique for second language learning (Atkinson, 1975) to learn your foreign language vocabulary for the next month.  You may find that it's fun to change the way you usually study, and you should be able to improve your memory for the foreign language terms. 

Record the foreign language words and keywords, and describe the image you are using.

Exercise 2.2

Now that you understand the importance of attention for memory and thought, try to become aware of the times when your attention wanders from a task.  With some effort, you can learn to pay attention.  You may be surprised at all that you've missed.  The next time you take a walk, notice the colors of the flowers, the shades of raindrops, the expressions of children.  Some believe that artists attend to these things that most of us miss.

Record times when you found your attention wandering from a task.

Can you discern a pattern?  If so, what is it?

Exercise 2.3

Observe a classroom, any grade level, and tally the number of times within 10-minute periods that students appear to not be paying attention.  What sort of evidence did you use for inferring that someone is not paying attention?  (e.g., eyes wandering, doodling, glazed look, snoring)

Give two suggestions for maintaining attention.

Exercise 2.4

Compare the cognitive activities of intentional and incidental learning.  Think of information you have recently learned through incidental and intentional learning.  Is the information you learned intentionally different from that learned incidentally?  How are they different?  Was the context of each type of learning the same or different?

Exercise 2.5

Ask two friends if they know the words or jingles used in commercials, either currently or in the past.  Ask them how they learned that information.  Then ask them the last information they purposefully learned, particularly complex information.  How are intentional and incidental learning demonstrated?

Exercise 2.6

Compare the descriptions of automatic and effortful memory.  How do these processes relate to intentional and incidental learning? Describe everyday situations where you would use each type of memory.

Exercise 2.7

Ask your friends to name a product they have never purchased before.  Ask them what they would probably buy if they needed to buy such a product.  Ask them why they named the products they did.  Can you determine what caused them to “recall” the specific product names in response to your question?

Exercise 2.8

Try re-organizing some information that you are required to learn.  Does your reorganization help or hinder your acquisition and accurate recall?  How would additional reorganization help?

Exercise 2.9

Use a graphic display (a table, chart, matrix, etc.)  to organize some complex information that you are learning.  Does the use of a drawing help or hinder your acquisition and accurate recall?  What qualities of the information make it easy or difficult to display in a drawing?

Exercise 2.10

Organize your notes so that topics that belong together are placed near each other.  Divide your study material into units that can be studied in one block of time.  Look for the structure in the material you're learning and interrelate the items so that you can "see the whole picture."  Describe how you used the principles of organization to improve the way you work and learn.

Exercise 2.11

Go to your local courthouse and see part of a trial.  (Traffic court works well for this purpose.)  What are some possible memory biases in the testimony given by eyewitnesses?  Do you think that the trial would have had a different outcome if the jurors knew that memory is often  unreliable?

Exercise 2.12

Use the mnemonics described in this chapter to help you prepare for exams.  Be sure that you understand the material you're learning.  What mnemonic did you use?  Were you successful in improving your retention?  Why or why not?

Exercise 2.13

There are many popular memory games.  For example, one game involves planning for a trip.  Each person tells what she or he will pack and must also remember what the previous players are packing.  Use imagery so that for each item you can visualize it along with the person's face that named the item.  You'll be sure to win first prize, unless someone else in the room is also using an imagery mnemonic.

What were the results of this exercise?

Exercise 2.14

Be aware of common notions of memory that are presented in books, on television, in  movies, and on the Internet.  Most show memory as a passive storage tank that can be accessed with the appropriate tools.  Few present the view that memory is dynamic and changes as the individual changes.  Discuss these topics with friends and family to see what they think about memory.  How do common beliefs about memory differ from the view that is presented in your text?

Describe one example of memory that you found in a book (e.g., Sherlock Holmes), movie, television show, or online.  Is it accurate?

Exercise 2.15

Try to remember something that happened to you in your childhood and then compare that memory with the account given by a parent or older child you were with at that time.  Compare the similarities and discrepancies in your memories.  What are some principles that you've learned in this chapter that could account for the differences?  Describe what each of you remembered and how confident each is of her or his memory. Explain your findings.

Exercise 2.16

Learn how to generate your own retrieval cues.  Loftus (1980) suggests that if you go to the supermarket without a shopping list, you can remember what items are needed by going through categories such as dairy, spices, meats, and cleaning supplies.  You can use categories as retrieval cues in a variety of situations.  Did you ever have the frustrating experience of knowing that you have to call someone, but don't remember who?  Try to recall by systematically going through categories--family, friends from school, employer, etc.  Without consulting any other sources, write out the names of as many of your classmates from high school as possible.  When you start "running out of names," think about different places such as clubs, different classes, the lunchroom, etc.  Did more names get recalled as you switched locations?  Describe what happened.

Write the names as you switch locations.

Exercise 2.17

For the following tasks, indicate the type of goal involved and one or more mnemonics that would be useful for the situation described.  What should you do when learning and recalling in each  of these situations?

1. studying for a physiology exam that involves learning Latin names for body parts
2. remembering where you left you car at the time you park it
3. remembering where you left your car hours later when you realize that you can't find it
4. considering all of the factors in deciding whether to spend Spring break in Florida with friends or with your kid sister in Saskatchewan
5. helping a friend remember a joyous childhood experience
6. learning the part for a lead role in a school play
7. learning a random list of digits in the order in which they were presented
8. learning the value of pi to 12 decimal places
9. recalling where you were on New Year's eve
10. remembering to stop for a paper on your way home from work
11. Learning your new telephone number.
12. Learning the main themes in Shakespeare’s collected works.

Exercise 2.18

Find a willing family member, friend, or classmate and help him or her remember what he or she was doing at exactly 5 p.m. last Monday.  Describe what you did to improve recall and its result.

Exercise 2.19

Read this:

 

Are you sure that you read it correctly?  Did you notice “the the?”  Most people don’t notice that the word “the” is printed twice.  Based on memory and the way it influences what we see, explain why this happens.  Show this to several friends and ask them to read it.  What percentage fail to see “the the?”

 

Exercise 2.20

Explain how classical conditioning may have been used in the television ad against Vice President Al Gore that was described in the chapter.  Do you think advertisers purposefully rely on principles of learning?  What about in this case, where the word “RATS” is clearly displayed?

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Chapter 3 - The Relationship Between Thought and Language

Try out the thought and language skills you’ve learned in this chapter.

Exercise 3.1

Choose three television commercials.  What are the implied messages and the inferences provided to viewers in each?

Exercise 3.2

Find three websites that make an argument to readers (i.e., they try to persuade readers to join their group, to buy something, to sign a petition). How do these sites rely on the process of inference in communication? How do these sites use analogies to persuade readers?

Exercise 3.3

Instructions given by trial judges to jurors include principles to follow in evaluating the testimony of witnesses.  Current instructions used in California include the statement, “Innocent misrecollection is not uncommon.”  What does this phrase actually mean?  What are some specific problems with the wording used?  Is there a better way to phrase this instruction?

Exercise 3.4

A widely publicized study indicated that about 18% of men and 17% of women surveyed reported that they had been attracted to or had sex with someone of their own gender at some point in their life (USA Today, August 1994).  Only 4% of men and 2.3% of women in the same survey reported exclusively same-sex partners.  How does the definition of “homosexuality” change when one considers these different groups?  Do more specific definitions of homosexuality appear more accurate?  Is it accurate to split people into two categories, “homosexual” and “heterosexual”?  Why or why not?

Exercise 3.5

The legal definition of “insanity” is the ability to distinguish between right (legal) and wrong (illegal) behavior.  In a well-known assault case, Lorena Bobbitt was acquitted by reason of temporary insanity for cutting off her husband’s penis (it was later reattached).  Years later, although presenting an insanity defense that included previous hospitalizations, medication, suicide attempts, and psychotic episodes, Andrea Yates was convicted of first-degree murder in the drowning of her five children in her bathtub.  Is the definition of insanity in each of these cases the same?  How is it different?  What do you think “insanity” means?

Exercise 3.6

In August, 2012, in an interview about abortion rights for women in the United States, including in cases of rape and incest resulting in pregnancy, Congressman Todd Akin (R-Missouri) stated, “It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, it’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” What is Rep. Akin inferring about rape by using the word “legitimate”? How would you describe his statement in terms of ambiguity and vagueness?

Exercise 3.7

Emergency contraception pills (ECPs) are pills that can be taken the “morning after” unprotected sex or accidental breaks in condoms to prevent pregnancy.  ECPs have several effects: they may inhibit or delay ovulation, they may inhibit tubal transport of the egg or sperm, they may interfere with fertilization of the egg, or they may inhibit implantation of a fertilized egg.  ECPs work before implantation a fertilized egg, and do not work after a woman is already pregnant.  Opponents of ECPs claim that they cause an abortion. What is the dictionary definition of abortion?  How does the definition of abortion differ between proponents and opponents of ECPs?  How does an abortion performed in a medical setting differ from the actions of ECPs?

Exercise 3.8

Identify possible attempts to mislead how you think in the following statements.  Determine if any of the following are being used: ambiguity, vagueness, emotional terms, equivocation, etymology, framing, bureaucratese, euphemism, reification, and negation.  Explain your answers.  Which ones are not necessarily misleading, but only might be depending on context?  There may be more than one correct answer.

• Why should I have to learn about analyzing arguments to determine if they are clear?  Aren't there too many arguments in the world already?
• It is not true that the governor did not oppose a ban on the sale of guns.
• This song is a big hit in Mexico.
• Why would you want to be friends with a queer?
• The best way to overcome shyness is by retraining your personality.
• Druggies hits a higher level of pain relief.
• Only future YUPPIES would attend that snooty private school.
• The word education comes from "educe" which means to bring out.  When we educate someone we should be trying to bring out the information that he already knows.
• Pursuant to our agreement and attached hereto is the codicil. (A codicil is an amendment to a will.)
• Have your stomach pains been accompanied by increased flatulence?
• When you purchase new bedroom furniture, delivery is free.
• The Giants are not having a bad season.
• Did you see the car run the stop sign?
• This ground beef is 75% fat free.
• This ground beef is 25% pure fat.
• Coke is it!
• All patriotic Canadians will agree.
• I don't know which of them is worse.
• In a discussion about boxing, George D. Lundberg, a prominent physician, expressed this view, "boxing is an obscenity. . . . a throwback to uncivilized man, and should not be sanctioned by any civilized society." [quoted in Lubell, A. (1989, November).  Chronic brain injuries in boxers: Is it avoidable? The Physician and Sports Medicine, p. 126-131.]
• The only days that are real holidays are those that are of religious importance because the word "holiday" was derived from the words "holy day."
• Only health nuts and oppressors would favor a ban on smoking.

Exercise 3.9

Consider and comment on the following analogies.  How good are they?  In what ways are the two topics that are being compared similar and dissimilar?  What is the purpose of the analogy?

• You'd go to an orthopedist if you broke your arm, so why not go to a love doctor when you break your heart?
• It is completely legal to drink alcohol and smoke cigarettes, both of which are known to have serious effects on one's health.  Yet, marijuana is not legalized, and its effects on health are not as well documented as alcohol and smoking.  Therefore, marijuana should be legalized.
• Comprehension is like moving a jungle gym from your friend's yard to your own. (Refer back to the text for the rest of this analogy.)
• Jealousy is a green-eyed monster.
• My love is like a red, red rose.
• Why should the children of faculty members attend the university free?  We don't send the children of politicians or public school teachers to school without cost.
• Federal Judge Robert Sweet expressed the following opinion on drug use: "If our society can learn to stop using butter, it should be able to cut down on cocaine." [quoted in Bennett, W. (1990, March). Should drugs be legalized? Reader's Digest, 136, p.90.]
• In an argument on the need to have national tests of what students know, the following analogy was proposed: tests allow us to determine if the educational system is well or ill; tests are like taking a patient's temperature.

Exercise 3.10

Listed below are several kinds of text.  Which graphic organizer would you use to depict the underlying relationships? Why? (There may be more than one correct answer.)

• a complex "who done it" type mystery story
• an essay on the effects of geography on the type of economy that develops in a region
• a manual on the repair of automobiles
• a description of a chemical chain reaction
• a classification of wild plants endogenous to Tasmania
• a "how-to" manual for deep sea diving

Exercise 3.11

Use a graphic organizer to depict the information presented in the chapter on memory. 

Exercise 3.12

Use the strategies for comprehension in your other class work.  If you're not taking any other classes, apply them to a lengthy newspaper or magazine article. 

Exercise 3.13

List at least five situations that would require the deliberate use of strategies for comprehension.

Exercise 3.14

Draw a flow chart of the information provided in this paragraph:

In the event of fire you should feel the door.  If it is hot, remain in your room with the door closed.  If the door is cool, open the door carefully and look for smoke in the hall.  If there is smoke remain in your room with the door closed.  If there is no smoke, proceed to the exit. (Black & Black, 1985, p. 193)

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Chapter 4 - Reasoning: Drawing Deductively Valid Conclusions

Exercise 4.1

Try out the reasoning skills you have learned in this chapter using the rules from Table 4.4 from the text.  You should use diagrams whenever possible.

Table 4.4 Reproduced from the Text (Thought & Knowledge)
Rules for Determining Validity of Conclusion When Reasoning With Quantifiers

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• Jeffrey Dahmer, John Wayne Gacy, and Richard Speck were mass murderers.
• Dahmer, Gacy, and Speck were white men.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. All white men are mass murderers.
  2. All mass murderers are white men.
  3. Some white men are mass murderers.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• Bobby stole a bicycle.
• Bobby is poor.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. All poor people are thieves.
  2. Some poor people are thieves.
  3. No poor people are thieves.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• Tomatoes taste salty.
• Tomatoes are red.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. All red foods taste salty.
  2. All salty foods are red.
  3. No salty foods are red.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• Some baseball players are scholars.
• No blondes are baseball players.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. All blondes are scholars.
  2. Some blondes are scholars.
  3. No blondes are scholars.
  4. All of the above are invalid

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• All cats are animals with nine lives.
• All animals with nine lives are mammals.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. All cats are mammals.
  2. Some cats are mammals.
  3. No cats are mammals.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• No presidents are young.
• All young people like Laverne and Shirley.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. No presidents like Laverne and Shirley.
  2. All presidents like Laverne and Shirley.
  3. No people who like Laverne and Shirley are presidents.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Determine the validity of the following conclusion:

• Some poor people do not own houses.
• All homeowners have assets.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. Some poor people have assets.
  2. No poor people have assets.
  3. Some people with assets are poor.
  4. All of the above are invalid.

Exercise 4.2

Many people arrested for murder report suffering severe abuse as children.  Donald was abused as a child; therefore he is likely to be (or become) a murderer.  What type of reasoning is being used here?  Is this reasoning valid?  Why or why not?

Exercise 4.3

• Carl is smarter than Abby.
• Dan is smarter than Bruce.
• Carl is smarter than Dan.
• Who is smartest?
• Who is dumbest?
•  
• The dog is to the left of the rooster.
• The newt is to the right of the rooster.
• The hyena is to the left of the giraffe.
• The newt is to the left of the hyena.
• Which animal is on the right?

Exercise 4.4

Which of these conclusions is valid?

• If gun control reduces violent crime, then people will vote for it.
• People are voting against gun control.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. Gun control reduces violent crimes.
  2. Gun control does not reduce violent crime.
  3. No definite conclusion.

Which of these conclusions is valid?

• If the Lakers were second, the 76ers came in first.
• The Lakers were second.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. The 76ers came in first.
  2. The 76ers did not come in first.
  3. No definite conclusion.

Which of these conclusions is valid?

• If Robin doesn't phone home, her parents worry.
• Her parents are worried.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. Robin didn't phone home.
  2. Robin phoned home.
  3. No definite conclusion.

Which of these conclusions is valid?

• If Edna doesn't practice, she won't play well.
• She doesn't play well.
•  
• Therefore:
  1. Edna doesn't practice.
  2. Edna does practice.
  3. No definite conclusion.
• Curly threw the pie or Larry didn't eat it.
• Larry ate it.
• What can you conclude?

Exercise 4.5

Determine the validity of the following conclusion (Bugliosi, 2001) using rules in Table 4.4:

Exercise 4.6

Determine the validity of the following conclusion (Bugliosi, 2001) using rules in Table 4.4:

Exercise 4.7

The following deductive reasoning problems are embedded in language, the way  they normally would be encountered in the real world.  Remember, the task here is assume that the premises are true and then determine what can validly be concluded.

• "Mrs. Cooke had studied home economics in college.  'Youth is a time of rapid growth and great demands on energy,' she said.  'Many youngsters don't get enough vitamins in their daily diet.  And since some vitamin deficiencies are dangerous to health, it follows that the health of many of our youngsters is being endangered by inadequate diet.'  (Does it follow that the health of many youngsters is being endangered by inadequate diet?  Give your reasoning)" (Henle, 1962, p. 371).
• When you use the toothpaste with "sex appeal," you will have more dates than ever dreamed possible.  Your brother bought generic toothpaste (definitely not the one with "sex appeal").  What will using generic toothpaste do to your social life.  (This is a paraphrase of a television commercial.)
• The drug problem will not be solved if we legalize drugs.  Therefore, we must not legalize drugs. What can we conclude will result from not legalizing drugs?  What can we conclude about legalizing drugs?

Exercise 4.8

You have a new job at a local store.  It is your job to go through checks at the end of each day and make sure than any check over $30 has been approved by the manager.  The amount of the check is written on the front, while the approval is initialed on the back of each check.  Which of the following checks below must you turn over to be sure that the sales clerk followed this rule and had checks over $30 approved?  (This problem is adapted from Cheng, Holyoak, Nisbett, & Oliver, 1986.  I tried a version of this problem when I was teaching at Moscow State University in Russia.  It provided a good example of my own ethnocentric biases.  Most of the students did not understand the problem because they don't use checks in Russia.)

~~~ ~~~~~~~~~$35 ~~~~

OK, dfh

~~~ ~~~~~~~~$22 ~~~~

Exercise 4.9

There are random patterns of sound waves emanating form outer space.  This must mean that there is life on other planets because if there is life on other planets, then the life forms would be trying to contact us.  If they were trying to contact us, then we would be able to pick up random patterns of sound waves.

Is this valid reasoning?  Draw the appropriate diagram.  Note that you have to go slightly beyond the diagrams that are presented in the text to solve this problem.

Exercise 4.10

Sometimes illogical reasoning serves as the basis for prejudice.  After the World Trade Center Attack, I heard the following argument being made: Terrorists led by Osama bin Laden do bad things (including killing Americans).  Osama bin Laden and his followers are Muslim.  Therefore, Muslims are bad.  Determine if this is a valid conclusion.  Show all work.

Exercise 4.11

This is a true story:  I was talking to a colleague and I told him that I had taken out student loans when I was in college.  He replied that he heard about people like me.  He read in the newspapers that many students didn't repay their school loans, so, I must be a deadbeat.  Was he right?  (Be sure that you come up with the right answer; this is critical to my reputation.)

Exercise 4.12

Suppose that you overheard this conversation: Tiana wants to run for president, and anyone who wants to be a politician is not to be trusted.  Therefore, Tiana cannot be trusted.  Is this a valid conclusion?

Exercise 4.13

There is a television commercial for a law firms that goes something like this:

• Our law firm is as trustworthy as Abraham Lincoln.
• Lincoln charged low rates and advertised in the newspapers.
• We charge low rates and advertise.

Notice that this advertisement begins with the conclusion. Is it a valid conclusion given the two premises?  Explain your answer.

Exercise 4.14

Consider the four cards below (adapted from Wason, 1969):

Every card has a triangle on one side and a circle on the other. Every card that has a black triangle on one side has a blank circle on the other side.  Your task is to indicate which of the cards you need to turn over in other to find out whether this rule is true.

Exercise 4.15

Present the four-card selection task that is presented in the text to your family and friends. Keep track of the percentage of people who select the correct answer as well as other combinations.  Explain the correct answer to them.

Exercise 4.16

Find examples of valid and invalid reasoning from the newspaper, television, billboards, and conversations.  If their reasoning is invalid, explain what is wrong with it.  Use circle diagrams to check on the conclusions in syllogistic arguments.

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Chapter 5 - Analyzing Arguments

Try out the argument analysis skills you have learned in this chapter.

Exercise 5.1

Bush v. Gore, the U.S. Supreme Court decision that ended the recounting of votes in Florida in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election, was illegal and unconstitutional.  It was completely inconsistent with previous Supreme Court decisions.  First, the five Republican justices stated that the decision and reasoning in Bush v. Gore was “limited to the present circumstances”, something the Supreme Court has never done, given that its principle function is to set legal precedence.  Second, Bush v. Gore is not supported by any clear precedent; it is inconsistent with all other equal protection decisions ever made by the U.S. Supreme Court, including previous decisions made by the five Republican justices themselves.  Third, Bush v. Gore is inconsistent with Article 2 of the Constitution, which grants state Supreme Courts the right to interpret state laws, including election laws.  Stopping the recount essentially granted a victory to George W. Bush, with 60,000 votes not counted because of machine error excluded (see Bugliosi, 2001; Dershowitz, 2001).  Analyze this argument in terms of its strength and quality.

Exercise 5.2

Analyze the conviction of Andrea Yates for first-degree murder in the drowning of her five young children.  The prosecution argued that Andrea Yates was guilty of premeditated murder because she had previously thought about killing her children.  They argued that she was not insane at the time of the killings because she called her husband immediately afterward and told him, “Come home…the children are hurt,” indicating that she knew what she did was wrong or harmful.  The defense argued that Andrea Yates was insane when she killed her children, and therefore is not guilty of murder.  They produced evidence indicating that Andrea had reported hearing voices telling her to kill her children; that she believed that her children were possessed and would go to Heaven if she killed them; that she had been hospitalized several times for serious depression and multiple suicide attempts; and that she had recently been prescribed antipsychotic and antidepressant medication.  Based on the legal definition of insanity (i.e., “the inability to distinguish between right and wrong”), did Yates know that it was wrong to kill her children?  Analyze both sides for the quality of their arguments, and provide your personal verdict.

Exercise 5.3

Choose two web sites that provide medical information.  Describe their main focus and content.  Evaluate the information they present according to the steps outlined in the chapter.  Does the information hold up?  Why or why not?

Exercise 5.4

Find some recent statistics on women’s average pay compared to men’s average pay. Construct an argument that favors gender disparities in wages and one that opposes gender disparities in wages.

Exercise 5.5

Part A: Diagram and evaluate the soundness of the following statements using the steps for analyzing arguments.  Be sure to bracket and number the statements before you draw the diagrams.  There may be more than one correct way to diagram complex arguments.

• The reason we have so many juvenile delinquents is that there are too many working mothers.
• She looked deep into his baby blue eyes and proclaimed, "I love you."
• You really should consider becoming a physics major.  The topic is interesting and there are plenty of good jobs available.
• You really should consider becoming a physics major.  The topic is interesting and there are plenty of good jobs available.  With a wide range of available jobs, you probably could find a job near your hometown.  Of course, it will require lots of hard work.  Physics is a particularly good choice for students who enjoy the sciences and mathematics.  Students with math anxiety probably won't be happy as physics majors.
• Eighteen year-olds should not be allowed to drink because they are too young.
• The trade agreement between Mexico and the U.S. is needed in order to improve the skiing in Colorado.
• There is too much violence shown on the network channels.  Advertisers will only pay for shows that have large viewing audiences, and these tend to be shows with excessive sex and violence.  For this reason, a public television station supported by tax dollars is needed.  But is it fair to make all taxpayers contribute to public television stations when most don't watch them?  We believe that it is.  Without tax-supported public television, we will never be able to provide high-level television programming. [This is a more difficult passage.  You may have to paraphrase the meaning of a statement.  Start by identifying the conclusion, and then the reasons that support it and the counterarguments.]
• The classic books of western civilization are the building blocks of our society.  Very few college students will read them unless they are required to.  For these reasons, these books should be required reading for all college students. 
• Are you tired of the way politicians are run in this country?  If so, vote for me.  Remember, when you vote for Elvira Slick, you're voting for me.

Part B: For each of the following examples, indicate if a fallacy is being committed, and if so, label it and explain why the reasoning is fallacious.  (More than one fallacy may apply.)  Whenever you decide that a line of reasoning is fallacious, you should be able to explain why.

• How can the U.S. Supreme Court decide that high school newspapers can be censored when papers written by those not in high school cannot be censored?  Nothing magical happens the day someone graduates from high school.  Students are only one day older.  We can't have laws that apply to you one day and different laws that apply the next day.
• I wanted to buy a Jaguar but I couldn't afford it, so I bought a Ford instead.
• "At last, four new residences designed to delineate a new level of luxury.  Some visitors will find the opulence disturbing.  Perhaps you will recognize a unique opportunity.  From one-half million dollars..." (quote from an advertisement for condominiums, Los Angeles Times, 1983).
• Of course, the new senator will be conservative.  His father and mother are conservatives, and his brother-in-law is head of "Conservatives for Better America."
• We can only conclude that there is no such phenomenon as extra sensory perception because no one has been able to demonstrate that it exists.
• "Your honor, you should judge this young girl not guilty of the crime because she came from a broken home."
• California State University is the best school for you.  It has a better computer major than Colorado State and is cheaper than Harvard.
• This diet is doctor-tested and approved!
• Over the past fifty years, all U. S. wars occurred while we had a Democratic administration.  "I would ask [Senator Kennedy] to name one Republican president that led this country into war." (This sentence was spoken by Richard Nixon during a televised debate.)
• Walter Cronkite buys his clothes at Snooty Brothers.  He's a man who knows.  Shouldn't you be shopping here too?
• You'll get better tasting cake with Happy Homemaker Cake Mix.
• We can either send troops to the Middle East or we can pull out entirely.  Which course of action do you prefer?
• What will I do to improve the union now that I've been elected president?  Why I'll do anything I can to make it better.
• The committee to investigate the causes of Alzheimer's disease will surely be able to find the cause because the committee is composed of leading researchers in the field.
• The question of whether we should allow gay fraternities to meet on campus is easy to answer.  How would you like it if your son joined a gay fraternity?
• The problem of incest is a serious one for contemporary society.  There has been a dramatic increase in the number of unreported cases in the last several years alone.
• You want to change the way we do business around here.  Well, I believe that if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
• "More Californians are choosing Bank of America because we have more automatic teller machines" (taken from a television commercial).
• The U. S. should not be sending troops to South America. We sent troops to Vietnam and the outcome was very poor.
• It is stupid to believe that the U.S. should stay out of South America.
• We cannot believe that genetic engineering is safe because the researchers are atheists.
• We cannot believe that genetic engineering is safe because the researchers have a substantial profit motive that may override their concern for safety.
• Marijuana is a serious threat to society.  College enrollment has declined at a rate that is the same as the rate of increase in marijuana consumption.
• He is a poor writer because his essays are badly written.
• “Wrinkle Away” face cream is the fastest way to reduce wrinkles around the eyes and mouth.
• You really should take Professor Snodley's class because enrollment in his class is low.

Part C: Carefully consider the following statements.  For each statement, decide if it is an opinion, reasoned judgment, or fact. If it is a fact, decide if it is an important or relevant one.

• Bold has a new and improved formula to get clothes even whiter.
• The new formula in Soapies is effective in removing spinach and grass stains; therefore, Soapies' new and improved formula will get clothes even whiter than the previous formula.
• Speedo is a faster acting cold remedy.
• Tang has more Vitamin C than plain orange juice.       
• Pearl Gray is the best candidate for the job!                
• Josh is the best pitcher on the team.                 
• Josh hit more home runs than anyone else on the team.           
• Josh is the best pitcher on the team.  He was the only pitcher to pitch a no-hitter.
• Ray got 80% of the arithmetic problems correct.         
• Druggies hits a higher level of pain relief.        
• In a taste test with over 100 dogs, three out of every four dogs preferred the taste of Crunchies brand dog food.  Doesn't your dog deserve the best?
• Diamonds are a good investment.        
• Interest rates have dropped three percentage points since March.       
• The national debt must be reduced.      
• As free Americans, we have the right to bear arms.     
• George Washington was the first president of the United States.       
• Historians who have examined paintings of George Washington have concluded that he didn't have wooden teeth.
• Vegetarian diets can reduce certain health risks.
• Vegetarians have low cholesterol levels.  It seems likely that vegetarian diets can reduce certain health risks.

Exercise 5.6

Here are three "person of the street" answers to the question, "Should the Catholic Church throw out its rule on celibacy for priests and nuns" (San Francisco Chronicle, June 21, 1994, p. A19).  Compare the reasoning.  What assumptions are being made?  These responses are verbatim.

21 year old student:  "Yes.  You can be married to someone as well as to the church; then priests, nuns could better experience real life.  And marriage would help solve the problem of child abuse by priests; it's caused by pent-up emotions that are channeled in abnormal ways."

33 year old customer service representative:  "It's difficult to answer, because I'm a practicing Catholic, but people are going to be people, and we have these urges!  If they could marry, priests wouldn't bother little boys, and nuns wouldn't slap the little kids in grammar school."

46 year old retired officer:  "Yes. Love, marriage; it's the nature of life.  I am from Jordan, and I am Catholic.  I've asked many priests how they survive as men.  They say if they pray they can get rid of 'evil' thoughts.  One priest I know has a secret life with a woman; he prays a lot."

Exercise 5.7

Keep a record of the persuasive techniques that appear on billboards, radio, and television.  A particularly good source for this material is the solicitations for political and charitable organizations that are mailed to your home.  Letters to the editor in newspapers and cartoons also rely on common persuasive techniques to "make their point."

Exercise 5.8

There are many different proposals for improving public education.  One proposal is to double funding.  Formulate your thoughts on this question.  Then, fill in the following format.

 

State your conclusion:

 

Give 3 reasons that support your conclusion, and rate each one for how well it supports your conclusion.  Use weak, moderate, strong, or very strong as your rating scale.

a.

 

Rating for a:

b.

 

Rating for b:

c.                    

 

Rating for c:

Give 2 counterarguments that weaken your conclusion, and rate each for how much it weakens your conclusion.  Use little, moderate, much, and very much to rate how much it weakens your conclusion.

a.

 

Rating for a:

b.

 

Rating for b:

If your argument involves any assumptions list them here:

 

Now diagram the argument that you just made, and give it an overall rating of its strength. 

 

Can you see how this sort of exercise is a good way to organize your thinking before you write a persuasive essay?

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Chapter 6 - Thinking as Hypothesis Testing

Practice the thinking as hypothesis testing skills that you've learned in this chapter.

Exercise 6.1

Perform a cold reading, following the steps outlined by Hyman (2000) (you may need to practice first).  Describe what happened, including your actions and the reaction of the target.  Do you think you could improve your “psychic abilities” with practice?

Exercise 6.2

Read someone’s palm based on rules you made up yourself (e.g., which lines are the life, heart, and intellect lines; what the shapes, sizes, and curvature of fingers indicates; what breaks, creases, multiple lines converging mean, etc.).  Describe what happened, including your actions and the reaction of the target.  Do you think you could improve your palm-reading skills with practice?

Exercise 6.3

Many people believe in healings performed by charismatic leaders and others.  Often they name particular individuals whom they know who were “healed.”  How might a consideration of variability affect such judgments?  How about the law of large numbers?

Exercise 6.4

Explain people’s beliefs in “sleep learning,” where audiotape messages alter behavior through “subliminal” learning while they sleep.  Many such tapes include no messages at all.  How could the self-fulfilling prophecy affect such beliefs?

Exercise 6.5

Many people today believe that the world will soon end as humankind experiences Armageddon.  How might confirmation bias and self-fulfilling prophecies affect such people’s behavior?  Could beliefs in imminent world destruction by some all-powerful nonhuman power be self-fulfilled?

Exercise 6.6

According to Einhorn and Hogarth (1978), Benjamin Rush, a professor at the first medical school in the United States, believed that "blood-letting" (bleeding) of patients would cure a variety of illnesses.  When his patients recovered from their illnesses, he would attribute their recovery to the practice of bloodletting.  (Sometimes leeches were used to draw the blood.)  When his patients died, he concluded that the nature of their illness was so severe that not even bloodletting could help them.  Using your hypothesis testing skills, comment on Rush's observations and conclusions.

Exercise 6.7

Whenever someone celebrates his 100th birthday, newspaper reporters ask him to reveal the secret of longevity.  Suppose that you read in the newspaper that a 100-year-old man attributed his long life to drinking a bottle of gin a day.  Can you conclude that drinking gin will help you to live long?

Exercise 6.8

Although research has shown that salt-free diets lower blood pressure, Mike doubts that this is true.  Mike's father has been on a salt-free diet for over a year and his blood pressure has remained high.  What would you say to Mike about his conclusions?

Exercise 6.9

Jim is very superstitious.  He believes that when a black cat crosses his path, something bad happens.  What would you tell Jim about his superstition?

Exercise 6.10

You've probably heard a commercial that goes something like this, "Seven out of ten dentists recommend Chewsy Gum for their patients who chew gum."  Comment on this commercial.  What would you want to know in order to evaluate this research claim?

Exercise 6.11

A conservative group of politicians attempted to persuade the local school board to eliminate its kindergarten program.  A study conducted in a rural area of Montana showed that children who went to kindergarten did not score higher on an achievement test than children who did not attend kindergarten.  How would you refute or prove their claim that kindergarten is a useless year?

Exercise 6.12

A therapist finds that 75% of her patients who were sexually abused as children have sexual problems when they are adults.  Can she conclude that the sexual abuse of children causes sexual problems for these individuals when they are adults?  Why or why not?  What additional information would you want to evaluate her claim?

Exercise 6.13

A psychotherapist presented a scholarly paper in which he reported that a large number of his patients were adopted when they were children.  Based on these data, he concludes that adoption causes psychological problems in adulthood.  Is his conclusion reliable?  Why or why not?  What additional information would you want to evaluate his claim?

Exercise 6.14

Dr. Feelgood is interested in understanding “normal” sexual behaviors in adults.  Howshould she go about collecting this information?  Do you think participants will be completely honest in reporting their sexual behavior?  Why or why not?  How might Dr. Feelgood’s methods of collecting such information (i.e., personal or telephone interviews, survey responses, etc.) affect participants’ responses?

Exercise 6.15

A study of 1,834 adults (USA Today, August 1994) indicates that 10% of American men and 6.4% of American women have had sex with someone of the same gender at least once in their lives.  Can these results be applied to the whole population of American adults?  Why or why not?

Exercise 6.16

The question of whether joint custody (custody of the child shared between both parents) is the best arrangement for children following the divorce of their parents has been a topic of considerable concern.  Legal hearings on this topic will frequently have one or two families for whom joint custody either worked or didn't work testify about their experiences.  Comment on this practice.  How would you go about deciding whether or not joint custody is a generally good idea?

Exercise 6.17

How would you decide if a new reading program should be implemented in your elementary schools?

Exercise 6.18

Rosenthal & Jacobson (1968) told teachers that some of the children in their classrooms were ready to "bloom" intellectually.  As you might expect, the children who were identified as bloomers did show large increases in intelligence.  This is especially interesting in light of the fact that there were no real differences between the "bloomers" and other children.  They had, in fact, picked the "bloomers" at random.  What phenomenon discussed in this chapter can describe this result?  How did it happen?

Exercise 6.19

In a study by Pickren and Gamarra (1975, p. 188), the following relationship was found between histiocytes in lung tissues and people's smoking histories:

	Total Number of Cases	Cases with Histiocytes
Nonsmokers	31	0  (0%)
Former smokers	38	10 (27%)
Smokers	43	40 (93%)

What can you conclude about the relationship between histiocytes and smoking history?  Can you claim that smoking causes histiocytes?  Why or why not?  (Don't worry if you don't know what histiocytes are.  It's not important in answering the question.)

Exercise 6.20

A mad scientist taught his pet fly to "fetch" a small stick whenever a whistle was blown.  The scientist then found that after he cut off the fly's wings, the fly didn't "fetch" the stick.  He concluded that flies hear with their wings and that the fly had become deaf as a result of losing its wings.  How would you convince the scientist that his experiment doesn't prove that flies hear with their wings?  What went wrong with the scientist's thinking?

Exercise 6.21

How would you apply double-blind procedures to test the claim that biofeedback can reduce the severity and frequency of migraine headaches?  What sort of evidence would you need to decide that migraines can be relieved with biofeedback?

Exercise 6.22

Your friend just returned from a trip to a foreign country.  During his trip he became ill and a friendly family helped him to find a doctor and get the medicine he needed.  Now he can't stop talking about the friendliness of the people he met there.  In fact, he plans to drop out of school, sell his home and move to this country.  Interpret his experience and his conclusion about the people of this country using the hypothesis testing skills developed in this chapter.  Comment on his hypothesis, sample size, measurement, perception about "other group" variability, error "badness," etc.

Exercise 6.23

A television commercial for a brand of cheese claims that their cheese is best for use in microwaves because it melts quickly.  To demonstrate their point, the actors show that the cheese melts faster than a frozen Popsicle.  Comment on this "experiment."

Exercise 6.24

A colleague (Dr. Gregory Kimble at Duke University) had a conversation with a taxi driver in New York.  The driver told him that he trusted the weather predictions in the Farmer's Almanac because whenever it predicted rain, it would usually rain either on the predicted day or a few days before or after the predicted day.  What do you think about the nature of this evidence?  Does this show that the Farmer's Almanac is usually correct in its weather predictions?  Why or why not?

Exercise 6.25

In a classic journal article, a researcher (Dawes, 1979) argued that interviews are too biased to be used as a way of selecting people for jobs or for deciding who should be allowed to enter a university.  He suggests that we rely on statistical models of who will succeed and do away with personal interviews.  Comment on this suggestion.  How would you respond to someone who laments that he was rejected and the committee never even met him, but relied instead on his test scores, grade point average, and essay?

Exercise 6.26

Over 70% of the people who responded to a write-in survey said that there is too much violence on television.  This should send a strong message to television programmers.  Comment on this finding. If you were a television executive, would you take this as a mandate to reduce televised violence?

Exercise 6.27

Think about the television, radio, and magazine advertisements that bombard our daily existence. Collect some "choice" advertisements and question their claims and conclusions.  How should they have tested their product? 

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Chapter 7 - Likelihood and Uncertainty: Understanding Probabilities

Practice the likelihood and uncertainty critical thinking skills that you've learned in this chapter.

Exercise 7.1

How many possible outcomes are there in four flips of a fair coin?  What is the probability of any particular outcome?  Why would a guess of “H-T-H-T” be likely to be wrong?  Why would a guess of “about half heads and half tails” be likely to be correct?

Exercise 7.2

In Sue’s classroom, they played a game, where all the students (about 35 of them) announced their birthdays out loud. Two people had the same birthdate as Sue! Explain this shared birthday in terms of probabilities and likelihoods.

Exercise 7.3

Tell a friend about the event described above.  Ask him or her to explain the event.  Is their explanation different from yours?  In what ways?

Exercise 7.4

Poll your friends (or your friends’ parents or parents’ friends) regarding their preferred games of chance in Las Vegas (and elsewhere).  Ask them why they have such preferences.  Do they follow any “luck” rituals (e.g., lucky numbers, carrying a luck charm, etc.)?  Try to explain their responses.

Exercise 7.5

Poll your friends about their “big wins” or big losses in Las Vegas (or when playing any game of chance, including state lotteries).  How do these events affect their game preferences?  How do your friends explain those events?

Exercise 7.6

In 1997, Noyes hospital in Dansville, NY reported a string of 12-straight girls born in a row (Livingston County (NY) News, August 1997).  If a birth rate of 50% boys-50% girls is normal, what is the probability of such an event?  Of the total birth rate in the hospital in 1997, 80 of 168 total births were girls.  What is the probability of this event?  What does this example tell us about events as they occur in “the long run?”

Exercise 7.7

There is an advertisement that appears on late-night television that offers to sell the secrets to picking winning lottery numbers.  The advertisement tells viewers not to play the lottery in a stupid way.  Is it possible to play the lottery intelligently by paying for the secret numbers, or is this "bunk?"  Explain your answer.   

Exercise 7.8

Suppose now that you learn that most people pick important dates in their life when they select lottery numbers (e.g., birthdays, anniversaries).  Could you increase the amount of money that you could win by picking numbers that do not correspond to dates such number greater than 31?  Would this system make you more likely to win?  Would this system make it more likely that you would win a big jackpot, if you did win?  Explain your reasoning. (I thank Dr. Dale Berger at Claremont Graduate School for suggesting this problem.)

Exercise 7.9

If each of the letters in the word "PROBABILITY" were thrown separately into a hat and one letter is drawn from the hat, what is the probability that it is a vowel? ("Y" is a vowel in this example.)

Exercise 7.10

Your friend is willing to give you 5:2 odds that the Phillies will beat the Dodgers.  Convert these odds to a probability value.

Exercise 7.11

a) What is the probability of drawing a picture card (Jack, Queen, or King) from a full deck of 52 cards?  b) What is the probability of drawing two aces in a row from a full deck (without replacement)?

Exercise 7.12

In a party game called "Spin the Bottle," the players form a circle with a bottle at the center.  A spinner spins the bottle and then kisses the person to whom it points.  Although five people are playing, the bottle has pointed to Marlene on each of its three spins.  What is the probability of this occurring by chance?  Can you make any "guesses" about Marlene?  (hint: try a tree diagram)

Exercise 7.13

Professor Aardvark gives such difficult exams that students can only guess at the answers.  a) What is the probability of getting all 5 questions on his True/False test correct by guessing (assuming that every alternative is equally likely to be correct)?  b) What is the probability of getting all 5 wrong?

Exercise 7.14

Every student in Mr. Weasel's class kept a record of the number of books read over a 3-month period.  The data are: 15, 5, 8, 12, 1, 3, 1, 7, 21, 4.  Compute the mean and median for these numbers.  Which one seems better as a measure of central tendency?

Exercise 7.15

Rubinstein and Pfeiffer (1980) have suggested that instead of reporting weather forecasts in terms of the probability of rain, a more useful index would be the Expected Value (EV) of rain.  Suppose the weather forecaster knows that there is a 30% probability of 5 inches of rain and a 70% probability of no rain on a given day.  What is the EV for rain?  Is this number more useful than the probability of rain?

Exercise 7.16

Abby scored very low on her SAT's.  Her score of 350 is well below the mean of 500.  If she retakes the test, which of the following is most likely to occur and why did you pick that answer?

1. She will probably score below 350.
2. She will probably score close to 350.
3. She will probably score between 350 and 500.
4. She will probably score near 500.
5. She will probably score above 800.

Exercise 7.17

A gourmet critic found that she is frequently disappointed when she returns to restaurants that she found to be outstanding on her first visit.  She concludes that the chefs get lazy over time and do not put as much effort into their cooking.  What do you think about her reasoning?

Exercise 7.18

Some people believe in what is called the “Sports Illustrated Curse,” where an athlete who appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated is subsequently “cursed”, so his or her previous star performance declines.  What is a more reasonable explanation of this “curse?”

Exercise 7.19

When the College Board announced that, on average, males score somewhat higher on the mathematics portion of the test, Darryl protested.  His sister scored a perfect 800 on this test and his girlfriend scored "way better" than he did.  Comment of Darryl's protest.

Exercise 7.20

You joined an office "pool."  There are 8 teams that you can bet on.  You bet on the mighty Coyotes that have won 40% if the games played so far this season.  You decided to bet $5.00 on them.  If you lose, you lose your $5.00.  If you win, you get back your $5.00 and get another $5.00.  If you bet on the Coyotes all season and the probabilities remain the same, what is the expected value of each bet? How much should you expect to win or lose if you bet on 10 games?

Exercise 7.21

You are planning on a beautiful picnic.  You will only go on your picnic if it doesn't rain, and your friend goes with you, and the park is open.  The mean old weather forecaster is predicting a 40% chance of rain. Not only that, but your friend is only 75% sure that he will go with you.  The park ranger is 90% sure that the park will be open this time of year.  What is the probability that it won't rain, and your friend will go with you, and the park will be open (assuming independence)?  Before you start this problem, estimate your answer. 

Exercise 7.22

How certain can we be about the occurrence of an event if its probability is 0?  .2?  .5?  .9?  1.0?

Exercise 7.23

Two sports fans are arguing over which sport – baseball or football – has the best (most accurate) playoff system.  Charlie says that the Super Bowl is the best way of determining the world champion because, according to him, “the seven games of the World Series are all played in the home cities of the two teams, whereas the Super Bowl is usually played in a neutral city.  Because you want all factors not related to the game to be equal for a championship, then the Super Bowl is the better way to determine the world champion” (Jepson, Krantz, & Nisbett, 1983).  Which is a more accurate measurement of the true championship team – World Series or Super Bowl?  Why?

Exercise 7.24

You were just thinking about an old friend from high school when your mother walks into the room and tells you that she bumped into this old friend.  Isn't this amazing?  Don't you think that you can use this example to convince your skeptical friends that you have ESP?  Explain your answer.

Exercise 7.25

Ask several friends to remember something (an event, a song title, an important historical date, etc.—something they may have some difficulty remembering).  After an interval of approximately one week, ask your friends to recall the information.  Ask them to rate how confident they are in their accuracy (on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1=not at all confident and 10=completely confident).  Are they all very confident?  Are they all confident, even if they are inaccurate?

 

Exercise 7.26

Ask two friends to play a card game.  Allow one friend to select his or her own card from a “face-down” deck; you choose a card and give it to the other person.  Without looking at the cards, ask them to rate their confidence (on a scale of 1 to 10) that they have the high card.  Repeat this several times, without showing your friends how had the higher card on each trial, always allowing one person and not the other to choose their card from the deck.  Do you expect the person who selects his or her own card to give different answers than the person who is given a card?  Is one person consistently more confident that they have the high card?  Explain why or why not.

Exercise 7.27

The Bible Code (Drosnin, 1997) claims that hidden codes in the Bible reveal events that occurred after the Bible was written, including contemporary events.  The codes usually involve letters that are equidistant from each other throughout passages of text, not counting punctuation or spacing.  Read the following Bible passage (taken from Thomas, November 1997, Skeptical Enquirer):

“And hast not suffered me to kiss my sons and my daughters?  Thou hast now done foolishly in so doing.” (Genesis 31:28)

Use the following code (similar to those used by Drosnin) to find the “hidden” message.  Start at the R in “daughters,” skip over three letters (not counting punctuation) to the O in “thou”, and three more to the S in “hast” and so on.  What is the message?  Do you think the writer(s) of Genesis had a psychic premonition of this event that they were trying to communicate to readers of the Bible?

Exercise 7.28

Officials at the suicide prevention center know that 2% of all people who phone their hotline actually attempt suicide.  A psychologist has devised a test to help identify those callers who will actually attempt suicide. She found that 80% of the people who will attempt suicide attain a positive score on this test, but only 5% of those who will not attempt suicide attain a positive score on this test.   If you get a positive identification from a caller on this test, what is the probability that he would actually attempt suicide?

Hint: Set up a matrix like the one shown below and then fill in the appropriate numbers.

Draw a tree diagram with 4 branches, multiply along the branches, then form the correct ratio.  The numerator will be the proportion that would actually attempt suicide and the test predicts that they will over this number plus the proportion that do not attempt suicide and the test predicts that they will. Follow the example in the book for José, if you're having trouble getting started.

Exercise 7.29

A conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred.  Unlike a joint probability (the probability of two independent events occurring together), a conditional probability involves dependency between the events.  Of the following events, does the probability of one event change if the other has already occurred?  Why or why not?

1. drinking alcohol and getting into a car accident
2. physical fitness and health problems
3. heads on the first flip of a coin and heads on the second flip of a coin
4. smoking cigarettes and developing lung cancer
5. licensing your dog and your dog being lost and not returned to you
6. the probability of an unplanned pregnancy and regular use of contraceptives

Exercise 7.30

A formula called Bayes Theorem is used to determine conditional probabilities (shown below), where p(A/B) equals “the probability of event A given that event B has already occurred;” p(B/Ā) equals “the probability of event B given that event A has not occurred;” and p(Ā) is the probability of event A not occurring and p(A) is the probability of event A.

p(A/B) =          p(B/A) p(A)   
  p(B/A) p(A) + p(B/Ā) p(Ā)

Using Bayes Theorem, consider the following: The standard test for the HIV virus has a 99% sensitivity rate and a 99% specificity rate.  99% sensitivity means that for every 1000 people tested who do have HIV, we can expect 990 to test positive and 10 to have a false negative test (a negative test even though they actually do have HIV).  99% specificity means that for every 1000 people who do not have HIV, we can expect 990 to get an accurate negative test result and 10 to have a false positive test result (a positive test even though HIV is not present).  Based on this scenario, if only 5% of the population is actually HIV positive, what is the probability that you are HIV positive given a positive test result (p(A/B)?  Before you work through the arithmetic, first estimate the correct answer.  After solving for the answer, think about it.  Was it (much) higher or lower than your original estimate?  If so, explain why.

Exercise 7.31

Using the information above, how would you react to a friend who just told you that he received a positive HIV test result, suggesting he is HIV positive?  What suggestions would you make to reduce his anxiety?

Exercise 7.32

In the emergency stay order issued by the U.S. Supreme Court that halted the recounting of undervotes in Florida in the 2000 Presidential Election, Justice Antonin Scalia wrote that continuing the recounting of votes not counted because of machine error in all counties in Florida would “threaten irreparable harm to George Bush” (Bugliosi, 2001).  Why was Justice Scalia wrong if the votes not counted because of machine error occurred randomly (i.e., in equal frequency for George Bush and Al Gore, based on the proportion of voters selecting each)?  If the undervotes occurred randomly, did stopping the recount threaten irreparable harm to Al Gore?  Why?

Exercise 7.33

When Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia ordered a halt to the recounting of 60,000 undervotes in Florida in the 2000 Presidential Election, the difference between George Bush and Al Gore was 154 votes (Bugliosi, 2001).  Based on the long run and the laws of large and small numbers, would counting 60,000 votes likely change a 154-vote difference?  What are the implications of this reasoning, and what does it suggest about the validity of the emergency stay order?

Exercise 7.34

A newspaper article (LA Times, 2001, November 12) suggested that of the undervotes in Florida in the 2000 Presidential Election, black voters votes’ were more likely to not be counted because of machine error.  The authors argued that black Republicans were especially likely to have their votes not counted.  Comment on this argument based on your knowledge of politics and probability.  Are the authors justified in their conclusion that Republican voters were less likely than Democrats to have their votes counted, if machine errors occurred at random?

Exercise 7.35

After the World Trade Center was attacked on September 11, 2001, a news program reported a story entitled, “The Miracle of Ladder Company 6,” about a small group of firefighters who survived the collapse of one tower because they were in a reinforced stairwell.  Comment on the “miraculous” nature of this event.  How does it reflect a search for meaning?  Are there other explanations for this event, besides a miracle?  Does use of the word “miracle” affect one’s evaluation of the event?  How so?

 

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Chapter 8 - Decision Making: It Is a Matter of Choice

Try out the decision making skills that you've learned in this chapter.

Exercise 8.1

Think of a major decision that you will be facing in the near future.  Use the worksheet procedure to help you reach a decision.

Exercise 8.2

Consider the problem: “I need more money” (common enough among college students).  Generate at least eight possible alternative solutions for this problem.  How does generating more alternatives help re-frame the problem?  Does having more alternatives to choose from lead to a higher-quality decision?  Why or why not?

Exercise 8.3

Ask a friend about a recent decision he or she made, how important it was, alternatives that were considered, and so on.  Ask your friend to evaluate the quality of the decision and rate his or her confidence that the “best” decision was made.  Analyze the decision and provide an explanation in terms of confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance, and overconfidence.

Exercise 8.4

Study a major political decision that was made in the last 25 years (e.g., The Bay of Pigs decision, Watergate, President Ford's decision to pardon former President Nixon, the decision to offer arms to Iran in exchange for hostages, the decision to send troops to Somalia).  Look for the role that fallacies and heuristics played.  Analyze the decision.  Based on the information that was available at that time, would you have made the same one?  If not, what would you have done?

Exercise 8.5

Find a newspaper or magazine article that describes a tragic event (e.g., accident, crime) that has recently occurred.  How is hindsight used by the writer(s) of the article?  Would a change in the outcome of the event affect the analysis of the writer(s)?  How so?

Exercise 8.6

Look for instances of the confirmation bias, availability heuristic, representativeness heuristic, wishful thinking, cognitive dissonance, and hindsight, in the everyday decisions made by yourself and others around you.  List an example that you found and explain how the example fits the definition given in the text.

Exercise 8.7

Reread the hospital scenario presented at the beginning of this chapter.  Based on what you've learned about how to make sound decisions, what would you do if you were the protagonist in this story?

Exercise 8.8

Try out some of the examples presented in this chapter on your friends (e.g., the ascending number series, the multiplication series, the information about a symptom and disease, the head-tail sequence).  If they make the usual errors explain to them why the errors occurred and how to avoid these errors in the future. Describe what happened.

Exercise 8.9

Consider the political candidates who are running in a current election, or select a past election.  Use the process of elimination by aspects to decide which candidate is best.  Explain the process.

Exercise 8.10

Tell several friends about a hypothetical scenario where a couple has been married for 25 years, but are very unhappy together, and have been unhappy for awhile.  Marriage counseling has not helped much.  Ask your friends what the couple should do – should they get a divorce, stay married, and so on.  Does their reasoning reflect entrapment?  Ask them to consider the same scenario as happening to themselves.  Does their reasoning reflect wishful thinking?  Can you find other examples of the decision making biases discussed in your text in people’s every day decision making?

Exercise 8.11

Take a poll of people living in your dorm or apartment building.  Ask them whom they like best on their floor, on other floors, and whom they like best in the whole building.  Also note the location of their room/apartment and the rooms of people they name.  Is mere exposure at work?  Does “liking” change with distance?

Exercise 8.12

Ask your friends to list their best friends, and current and former “significant others” (code names may be used).  Then ask them to indicate where they met each person and how the relationship started.  Is mere exposure at work?  In what ways?  How about reciprocity?

Exercise 8.13

Sensitively ask your friends about their opinions on controversial issues [e.g., gun control, abortion, etc.].  How is framing used in their responses?  Is framing used in the opposing viewpoint?  How so?

Exercise 8.14

Comment on the following:

"We've already invested over 2 million dollars of taxpayer funds in this project.  If we pull out now, all that money will be wasted."

"Of course Ngyuen will made a fine class president.  He always says nice things to me."

"No, we're not prepared for a flood.  Although we had a serious flood last year, another one is not likely to happen."

"Italians are naturally musical.  After all, where do you think Frank Sinatra came from?"

"I'm sure that their next child will be a girl.  After all, they already have six boys."

"It's a good idea to use 'Goniffs Are Us' for investment advice.  Last year they recommended that their clients invest in Bob's Bank and that turned out to be an excellent investment."

"I think that there is no reason to require motorcycle riders to wear a helmet, but I do believe that we should have strict laws regarding recombinant DNA because it's so risky"

"After all the work Loren put into selecting the right phone company, the company he selected was subject to a corporate takeover, and now we're stuck with poor phone service.  He would have been better off if he'd just flipped a coin."

Exercise 8.15

Your neighbor believes that men like more aggressive sports and women like more artistic sports.  He polled several people in the neighborhood and found that out of the 100 neighbors (59 women and 41 men) he polled 29 of the men and 24 of the women preferred wrestling to ballet.  The rest expressed the opposite preference.  Do these data support your neighbor's belief?  Explain your answer.In answering this question, you need to consider all of the combinations of the data, and specifically examine disconfirming evidence. Let’s try a matrix to organize it:

	Men	Women
Prefers Wrestling	N = 29;  % of men = 71	N = 24;  % of women = 41
Prefers Ballet	N = 12;  % of men = 29	N = 35;  % of women = 59

Exercise 8.16

Compare these two sets of questions:

a). Does the continent of Asia contain more or less than 10% of the world’s population?    What percentage of the world’s population is contained on the continent of Asia?

b). Does the continent of Asia contain more or less than 80% of the world’s population? What percentage of the world’s population is contained on the continent of Asia?                  

The only difference between a and b is in the value given in the more or less question.  In a, the value is 10%.  Most people will respond “more” to this question.  In b, the value is 80%.  Most people will respond “less” to this question.  Ask the a questions to 5 people and the b questions to another 5 people.  What is the average answer given when they have to estimate the percentage?  What do you think that you will find?  Why?  Did you get the results you anticipated?  Explain how the values 10% and 80% influenced estimates of an unknown figure.

Exercise 8.17

Read the following scenarios and choose one of the two options described in each:

Threatened by a superior enemy force, the general faces a dilemma.  His intelligence officers say his soldiers will be caught in an ambush in which 600 of them will die unless he leads them to safety by one of two available routes.  If he takes the first route, 200 soldiers will be saved.  If he takes the second, there is a one-third chance that 600 soldiers will be saved and a two-third chance that none will be saved. 

Which route should he take? The general again has to choose between two escape routes.  But this time his aides tell him that if he takes the first, 400 soldiers will die.  If he takes the second, there is a one-third chance that no soldiers will die, and a two-thirds chance that 600 soldiers will die.  Which route should he take?

Ask different friends the above questions.  Are their responses similar to each other and to yours, or not?

What phenomenon is illustrated by this task?  (See text for further explanation.)

Exercise 8.18

Read the following scenarios and answer the question in each:

You’ve decided to see a Broadway play and have bought a $40.00 ticket.  As you enter the theater, you realize you’ve lost your ticket.  You can’t remember the seat number, so you can’t prove to the management that you bought a ticket.  Would you spend $40.00 for a new ticket?

You’ve reserved a seat for a Broadway play for which the ticket price is $40.00.  As you enter the theater to buy your ticket, you discover you’ve lost $40.00 from your pocket.  Would you still buy the ticket?  (Assume you have enough cash left to do so).

Ask different friends the above questions.  Are their responses similar to each other and to yours, or not?

What phenomenon is illustrated by this task?

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Chapter 9 - Development of Problem Solving Skills

Try out the problem solving skills that you've learned in this chapter.

Exercise 9.1

A frog fell into a five foot deep well and needs to begin the arduous task of hopping out. Every hour he jumps two feet, but then slides back one foot.  How long will it take him to get out of the well?  (Hint: draw a diagram.)

Exercise 9.2

Irvin has begun a jogging program.  He jogs 2 miles north, then turns right and jogs 3 miles, then heads left 1 mile, then turns and jogs 2 miles to the right, then he jogs 3 miles south, and finally 5 miles west.  How far is he from his starting point?  (Hint: draw a map.)

Exercise 9.3

You agree to be a contestant on a silly television show.  There are 24 gift boxes lined up in four rows of six boxes each.  One of these boxes contains the grand prize (a weekend in San Bernardino, California).  You can ask your television host any question that has a "Yes" or "No" answer.  What questions would you ask him?  How many questions would you need to definitely identify the box containing the grand prize?  (Hint: Use the strategy that works best with an organized array of equally likely choices

 

Exercise 9.4

Design an automobile that can drive across land and water.

Exercise 9.5

There are four dogs sitting in front of their doghouses.  The dogs, in left to right order, are Pizza, Tiger, Lady, and Sancho.  Based on the information given below, figure out which dog eats Crunch Blend dog food.

1. Pizza lives in a blue doghouse.
2. The dog who lives in a red house eats Yummies.
3. Sancho eats Butcher Boy dog food.
4. Lady lives next to the dog with the green house.
5. Tiger lives next to the dog who eats Crunchy Blend.
6. The dog in the white house is next to the dog who eats Butcher Boy.
7. The dog who eats medium rare steak is farthest away from the dog who eats Butcher Boy.

(Hint: Use the form of representation that is recommended when the givens are taken from categories of information.)

Exercise 9.6

Solve the following anagrams.  (Hint: Use the strategy that is recommended for problems with few solution paths.)

CRA     NTU     ETA        NIK

Exercise 9.7

Using the figure below, place the cowboys in the on their horses so that they can ride properly.  (M. Scheerer, 1963).  (Hint: You will have to break set to solve this problem.) The answer is presented at the end of the exercises.

Exercise 9.8

Using only six short sticks, arrange them to form four equilateral triangles.  (Hint: This problem will also require that you break a mental set.)

Exercise 9.9

The notched-checkerboard problem: "You are given a checkerboard and 32 dominoes.  Each domino covers exactly two adjacent squares on the board.  Thus, the 32 dominoes can cover all 64 squares on the checkerboard.  Now suppose two squares are cut off at diagonally opposite corners of the board (see Fig. 9.2).  Is it possible to place 31 dominoes on the board so that all of the 62 remaining squares are covered?  If so, show how it can be done.  If not, prove it impossible" (Wickelgren, 1974, p. 29).  (Hint: This problem is directly analogous to another one solved in this chapter.)

Exercise 9.10

The Jealous-Husbands Problem:

Exercise 9.11

A favorite of Newell and Simon's (1972) is this crypt arithmetic problem:

The problem is to substitute a digit (0 through 9) for each letter so that the letters follow the usual rules of addition.  (Hint: D = 5.)  I'll demonstrate the first step:

I'll give you a second hint: R must be an odd number.  Complete this problem.

Exercise 9.12

Complete the following letter series.  (This problem has been used in intelligence tests for English school children.)           

OTTFFSS---   

What are the next three letters?  (Hint: Thinking about repeating sequences of letters will lead to blind paths.)

 

Exercise 9.13

An anxious mother wants to send a T-square (a rigid drafting instrument) to her son in college.  The T-square is 13" long.  Unfortunately the express mail service won't accept any packages more than 12" long. How was she able to send the T-square by express mail.  (No, she didn't cut or fold it.  Hint: Draw boxes around an imaginary 13" T-square.)

Exercise 9.14

A penny gum machine is filled with red and white gumballs.  There is no way of knowing the color of the next ball.  If Mrs. Jones wants to be sure of getting a matching pair of gumballs, how many pennies must she be prepared to spend (Gardner, 1978)?  (Hint: This problem is analogous to another one presented in this chapter.)

Exercise 9.15

A man bought a horse for $60 and sold it for $70.  Then he bought it back again for $80 and sold it for $90.  How much money did he gain or lose on these transactions?  (Hint: Think about different ways to rephrase the problem.)

Exercise 9.16

"If one greyhound can jump over a ditch two meters wide, about how wide a ditch can six greyhounds jump across?" (Bereiter, 1984).

Exercise 9.17

The alphabet is presented below in two rows.  What is the rule that determines whether a letter belongs in the top or bottom row?

Exercise 9.18

Here is a classic problem that appeared in a longer form in Ann Lander's advice column (January 13, 1992):

Dear Ann: My wife and I soon will be celebrating our 30th wedding anniversary, and although we've been quite happy together, I can't bring myself to tell my wife something that's been bothering me since our honeymoon.  Louise never told me that she played the accordion and that she took it with her everywhere.  I was flabbergasted on our honeymoon night as I sat through three recitals of "Lady of Spain" and an old English madrigal with surprisingly ribald lyrics.  Those are the only tunes that she knows.                          Our social life has always been quiet.  Our only friends are Bernice and Murray.  They come over quite often and join Louise in a rousing chorus of "Lady of Spain."  Murray plays his head--that is, he raps his knuckles on his head while opening and closing his mouth, which produces changes in tone.  Bernice clacks two spoons together and hums the harmony.                   
Ann, the racket is driving me crazy.  Any suggestions?                    

In thinking about this problem, decide if it can be stated with at least four different goal states.  For each goal state, come up with at least two possible solutions.  When you are finished, decide if you have hit upon a good solution.  I have presented Ann Lander's solution at the end of the exercises.  Decide if the solution you decided upon is as good as hers.

Exercise 9.19

Find problems of your own and apply the strategies you've learned in this chapter.

 

Answer to Exercise 9.7    

 

Turn the horses panel 90 degrees to the left.

 

Answer to Exercise 9.18

Ann Landers suggested that the exasperated husband surprise Louise with accordion lessons.  She had no suggestions for what to do with Bernice and Murray.

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Chapter 10 - Active Learning Exercises

Using the strategies for creative thinking presented in this chapter, give creative solutions to the following problems.  Notice which of the creativity strategies you try for each problem and which one seems to work.

Exercise 10.1

The 1958 Rockefeller Report on "The Pursuit of Excellence: Education and the Future of America" raised a number of still timely problems in need of creative solutions. 

Select one of the problems listed below.  Restate the goal in at least 4 ways and then list some solutions that would "fit" each goal. Assume a different perspective, then list an additional goal and possible solutions for this goal.

1. How can we improve conditions for 'giving free expression to creativity' within the realms of Science, Government, Business, and Education?
2. In what ways can colleges and universities provide the Best Climate for the Creativity of the Individual without sacrificing the Benefits of Group Organization?
3. How can we more quickly and surely identify the creative person and enhance his individuality?

Exercise 10.2

Morale is low on the automobile assembly line.  There is a heat wave that is affecting everybody's work, causing the employees to slow down and destroy the pace on the assembly line.           

State the problem and the goal in three different ways.        

List positives, negatives, and interesting aspects of each of the ways you defined the goal and each of the solutions you generated.  Are you able to apply solutions from a different domain?  What do teachers do on very hot days when they have to keep their students working?  Are any of the strategies applicable to automobile assembly lines?  Do any of your ideas meet the criteria for creativity?

Exercise 10.3

Ask a group of your friends who do not have children to brainstorm on ways to get children to watch less television.  Now ask a group of parents to do the same.  Compare the two lists.  How are they similar?  How are they different?  Is there a difference between the responses of people who have children and those who do not?

Exercise 10.4

An architectural firm has been given a difficult contract.  They must build an essentially rectangular building to keep construction costs down, yet they want it to be aesthetic and match its colonial surroundings.  What are some possible approaches?  Visual the possibilities.  If possible, sketch some solutions.  List the attributes for buildings and determine if you can use some combinations to create a novel and good design.

Exercise 10.5

If you've ever had the distasteful experience of trying to get a young child to take unpleasant tasting medicine, you'll know that this is a difficult task.  How can you get a young child to take unpleasant tasting medication?  List two similar problems from different domains.  Do they suggest a solution?  Visualize this problem from the perspective of the child, the parent, the medicine, the spoon.  Describe the process.

Exercise 10.6

When college students move away from home and into the dorms, they often feel homesick.  Because this seems like a childish problem, few will admit to it.  What can be done to alleviate this problem?  List other problems in which the people involved don't want to talk about the problem.  Does this list suggest novel solutions?  Redefine the problem in three different ways.  Now list a solution to each redefinition of the problem. 

Exercise 10.7

Some young women literally starve themselves to death in order to gain the "super-thin" look that modern society endorses for women.  What can we do about this problem?  Before answering this question, write down all of the relevant terms that come to mind as  you think about the problem.

Exercise 10.8

You have been commissioned to create stained glass windows that depict the American Revolutionary War.  What should you depict?  How will you select your colors, etc.? Visualize the possibilities.  What sort of scene do you want to depict?  Why?  Imagine that you were a soldier in the American Revolution, a member of the English navy, the King of England, a Native American, etc.  Do these different perspectives change what you want to depict?   

Exercise 10.9

Your boss just called and is on his way over for dinner.  Using only the ingredients you have in your house, what would you make for dinner?  Suppose each of the following: your boss is a gourmet cook, it is very hot in your house, your boss is vegetarian, you are on a low calorie diet, your spouse only eats rare meat and your boss finds rare meat disgusting, your boss is kosher and you're not even sure what that means, you made pork and your boss is allergic to it.  How do your plans change in each of these scenarios? How about having dinner delivered?

Exercise 10.10

How would you design a costume to represent what the well-dressed young man or woman will wear in the year 2025? Make a matrix of attributes.  Browse through fashion magazines and costume books to increase the number and quality of your ideas.

Exercise 10.11

The headquarters of a large corporation is faced with rising costs and declining profits.  In order to remedy this problem they could:

1. fire six employees
2. discontinue their new line of designer underwear
3. cheat on their taxes
4. require each employee to take a pay cut
5. ask each employee to work an extra hour each day
6. borrow money at high interest rates

Evaluate the impact of each of these solutions and recommend additional ones.

Exercise 10.12

Find a problem and suggest a solution.  It can something as silly as putting headlights on your cat's collar so she can be seen at night or as serious as designing a better cane for the blind.

Exercise 10.13

Apply your problem solving skills to a contemporary social issue such as eliminating racism, reducing pollution, or de-escalating the arms race.  You may use any of these suggestions or find a different contemporary problem.  Go through the various strategies that are listed and see how the use of each one changes the nature of the problem and the response.

Exercise 10.14

Read the biography of a famous creative person.  How did he or she arrive at creative solutions?  Can you discern anything notable in the individual's background or personality that can help to explain the nature of creativity?  Is there evidence for intrinsic motivation?

Exercise 10.15

Find poems and other forms of artistic expression that have used analogies.  How does the analogy convey the meaning that is implied by the artist?

Exercise your creative abilities in some of the following:

Exercise 10.16

Write captions for cartoons.  As you do this, think about the use of the creative thinking strategies. 

Exercise 10.17

Doodle.

Exercise 10.18

Integrate principles learned in one class into another entirely different subject area.

Exercise 10.19

Think of ways to improve on a favorite toy--like a teddy bear.

Exercise 10.20

Keep an idea file.  Jot down ideas as they come to you.  Review them periodically and use them.

Exercise 10.21

Enjoy your creative thoughts.

Exercise 10.22

Think about your own intrinsic and extrinsic motivation toward your studies.  Are any of the six conditions that kill intrinsic motivation present in your life?  In your school setting?  How?  How do you think your intrinsic motivation toward your education could be improved?

Exercise 10.23

Administer the Remote Associations Test (RAT; p. 685) to two or more of your friends.  Ask the same friends to draw a picture on a piece of paper with a large circle already drawn.  Do you think performance on the RAT is related to the creativity of their picture?  Does the circle dominate some pictures?  Do these seem more or less creative than pictures that are not dominated by the circle?  Why?  Does either of these tests seem to be a valid measure of creativity?  Explain your answer.

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Chapter 11 - The Last Word

Use the critical thinking skills that you developed in this book to answer the following:

Exercise 11.1

Suppose that you are serving on a jury and you are hearing evidence about the guilt or innocence of a robbery suspect.  To determine if she is guilty, a sample of her hair is compared to hair found at the scene of the crime.  The two hair samples match.  Would you consider the suspect more likely to be the robber if the hair at the scene of the crime is indistinguishable from the hair of 1% of the population than if it were indistinguishable from 20% of the population?  (This problem is adapted from Arkes, 1989).  Why did you answer the way you did?  How would you explain your answer to other members of the jury who say that this doesn't matter because we cannot be 100% certain in either case?

Exercise 11.2

The following statement is taken from campaign material that was mailed to my home from the Democratic National Committee (entitled, "Let's Look at the Record," received in November 1994):

Explain the sorts of persuasive techniques that are being used in this question.  Can you identify the fallacy that is being committed?  If so, what is it?

Exercise 11.3

Suppose that you are deciding if a new television show is funny.  Zimbardo and Leippe (1991) cite evidence that people rate shows as funnier when laugh tracks are used on the shows than whey they aren't.  Explain how this would influence your judgments about how funny a show is.

Exercise 11.4

You are interested in determining if a weight loss club really helps people lose weight.  The club advertises that out of 138 people who started the program one year ago, 81 are still attending and they lost an average of 14.7 pounds.  What additional information would you want to know?  What can you conclude? (Lehman & Nisbett, 1993)

Exercise 11.5

A commonly heard argument that appears in pro-communist publications goes something like this:  Under communism, Russia had virtually no crime.  Now that it is becoming capitalist, crime is soaring.  It is clear that the change to capitalism has caused the crime. Comment on this causal statement.

Exercise 11.6

Yu-chin is an attractive, well-dressed woman with carefully polished nails and well-done hair.  Which of the following is most likely to be true about Yu-chin? 

• She is most probably a salesperson.
• She is most probably a model.
• She is most probably a physicist.
• This is a stupid question because we cannot make any probability statements.

Why did you select the answer that you did?

Exercise 11.7

According to Liebman (1992), Lender's Bagels say Blueberry, but they contain more dried colored apple pieces than blueberries in them.  (The apple pieces are colored blue, of course.)  The picture on Lean Cuisine Glazed Chicken with Vegetable Rices shows six thick slices of mushrooms, yet on analysis, it contains about 1/3 of a mushroom.  What are the strategies behind these labeling and picture "gimmicks."  How can they be used to persuade us to buy products that are not what they seem?

Exercise 11.8

If you are a highly talented squash player who is playing against a less talented novice, should you choose a 5-point or 1-point tie breaker?  Why?  (Adapted from Fong, Krantz, & Nisbett, 1986)

Exercise 11.9

Suppose that you want to learn about attitudes toward some controversial subject such as whether retarded adults should be allowed to care for their own children.  How would you design a good study that would provide a valid index of what people in North America think about this topic?

Exercise 11.10

The following is taken verbatim from a page-long advertisement that appeared in many national newspapers in the United States on June 1, 1993.  It was written to persuade readers that they should fight the decision by the ABC television network to air an R-rated series:

Exercise 11.11

In a paper that was written about needle exchange programs, I read the following:  "To not implement a needle exchange program is to condone genocide."   How would you respond to this statement, regardless of your views on needle exchange programs.

Exercise 11.12

This is almost too silly to write about without laughing, but it is a true story.  A doctor appeared on a daytime talk show claiming that he could hypnotize women so that they could enlarge their bust size.  As evidence of his success, he brought along several women who offered testimonials that his techniques worked.  As an amiable skeptic, respond to this approach.  Can you conclude that it worked for some people based on the testimonials?

Exercise 11.13

A student once asked if it were possible to remember one's own birth.  How would you design an experiment that would answer this question?

Exercise 11.14

Many people believe that premenstrual syndrome (PMS) is common among women, yet the research data show that it is very rare.  Almost 50% of the women who report that they have PMS, actually show no relationship between their symptoms and their menstrual cycles (Wade, 1995).  Why does this belief persist when research shows that it is really very unusual?

Exercise 11.15

"David, an avid sports fan, found a unique way of getting a clearer picture on his TV to watch the Grey Cup game.  In telling a friend about this incident, David points out that:

1.  He kicked the TV to get a clearer picture of the curling and Hockey match.
2. The vertical and horizontal hold on the TV was stable after he kicked it.
3. David watches TV sports in the living room and sits on the couch.
4. He had a poor picture of the Grey Cup game until he kicked the TV." (Amsel, Langer, & Loutzenhiser, 1991, p. 239)

If you wanted to convince someone that kicking the TV caused a better picture, rate each of the above statements on how relevant it is to establishing cause using 1=  not at all relevant and 5 = very highly relevant.  Why did you select the ratings that you chose?

Exercise 11.16

The following excerpt is taken verbatim from an advertisement for a phone-in psychic.  (It appeared in Cosmopolitan magazine, January, 1994).

 

How good is this "scientific proof?"  Comment on the claims that are being made to support that conclusion that psychics are able to know the future.

Exercise 11.17

Suppose that you learn that a certain food is statistically associated with some disease. Researchers found twice the rate of the disease in people who ate the food compared to those who didn't eat the food.  Suppose further that both groups had 10000 subjects in them.  The group that ate the food has 6 cases of the disease and the group that didn't eat the food had 3 cases of the disease.  What can you conclude?  (Adapted from Dawes, 1994)

Exercise 11.18

I received an exciting letter in the mail from the "World of Wealth."  The letter informed me of my great luck in being selected to enter a contest.  This part is verbatim: 

Well, what do you think?  Should I spend the money to enter this contest?  Why did they use my name in virtually every line in this letter?  Why did they tell me that "taxes would not be prepaid?"    In the very fine print on the back, they add that 1,570,500 total entries are expected.  Should this number influence whether or not I spend my money to play this contest?

 

Exercise 11.19

Homelessness is a major problem in the United States and many other places in the world.  State the goal for this ill-defined problem in 4 different ways and list some possible solutions to the problem of homelessness that are suggested by the way you stated the goal.  Given what you just learned from this exercise, what would you suggest as a way to reduce the problem of homelessness?

Exercise 11.20

Find a news story or an advertisement that relies on statistics.  Explain if the statistics are being used correctly or incorrectly.

 

Exercise 11.21

Read through the "letter to the editor" section of your local newspaper.  Comment on the reasoning that is used in 3 different letters.  How well are the conclusions supported?  Can you spot any errors? 

 

Exercise 11.22

Suppose you want to buy your dream car and you've narrowed your search down to 3 models.  Using the decision-making worksheet below, answer the following questions.

Problem:  Which car to buy?

Considerations	Honda	Chevrolet	Yugo
price  (5)	-2	+1	+2
miles per gallon (4)	+1	0	-1
appearance  (3)	+2	+1	-1

1. Do the necessary computations above to decide which car to buy using the overall assessment method.  Which car should you select?
2. Do the necessary computation to decide which car to buy using the dimensional comparison method.  Based on this method, which car should you select?

Do the necessary computations to decide which car to buy using the 2/3 ideal rule.  According to this method, your dream car should have a minimum score of _____?  Based on this method, which car should you buy?

Exercise 11.23

Suppose you believe that: 

All Democrats are tax and spend liberals. 
Candidate X is a tax and spend liberal. 

Is it valid to conclude that Candidate X is a Democrat?  Show your work.

Exercise 11.24

Select a photograph from a recent newspaper or news magazine.  What does it show you?  Describe it in words, and then compare your words with the photo?  Is the photo more memorable or more likely to sway opinion?  Why?  What sorts of visual devices are used in the photo?  Is there an expression on the face of a person that would be difficult to convey in words? What is at the center of the photo?  What activity and mood is depicted?

Exercise 11.25

Here is a summary of a California state proposition that appeared in the Los Angeles Times on October 25, 1992, p. T4.

Exercise 11.26

Write a letter to me (the author of your text) explaining what was useful about the text and what needs to be improved.  If you have suggestions or good examples for the next edition, please let me know.  If I use your suggestion, I will be certain to reference your letter.  You can write to me at:  Dr. Diane F. Halpern, Department of Psychology, Claremont McKenna College, 850 Columbia Avenue, Claremont, CA 91711-6420 USA.

Exercise 11.27

Read through the comments posted on the internet in response to a YouTube video, newspaper article, or blog post.  Comment on the reasoning that is used in 3 different posts.  How well are the conclusions supported?  Can you spot any errors? 

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